China’s Customs Bureau said its January exports fell 3.3% year-on-year, missing expectations of a 6.3% gain. Imports tumbled 19.9%, far worse than the expectations of a 3.3% decline. The trade surplus for January jumped to a record high of U.S. $60 billion, beating the forecast of U.S. $48.9 billion.
January's import data points to weak domestic consumer demand ahead. So far, consumer spending, which makes up 36% of the China GDP, has been increasing at a decent pace. Retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending, continued to accelerate in December, rising 11.9% from a year earlier. This trend might not continue if imports keep falling. China imported 28 million tonnes of crude oil, or an equivalent to 6.59 million barrels per day, in January, down 7.9% from December's record level of 31 million tons, or 7.2 million barrels per day. China apparently is cutting back on its strategic stocking of crude oil imports for whatever reasons.
The strategic petroleum reserves of at least 500 million barrels of oil is supposed to be in place by 2020.
The record trade surplus for China could also raise eyebrows in Washington, D.C. The Commerce Department just announced on Thursday that the U.S. trade deficit in December jumped 17.1% to U.S. $46.6 billion, the largest since November 2012. The U.S. trade deficit with China alone was U.S. $28.3 billion in December and U.S. $342.6 billion for the full year of 2014. |