BIOPHARMA

AbbVie Shares Slipped on Concerns About Humira (adalimumab) Sales

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Thr Jul 30, 2015

In the second quarter 2015, AbbVie [NYSE:ABBV] reported worldwide sales of $5.48 billion, up 11.1% year-over-year. On an operational basis, sales increased 19.4%, excluding an 8.3% unfavorable impact from foreign exchange rate fluctuations. Net profit was $1.37 billion, or $0.68 per share, up 24.6% year-over-year. Excluding non-recurring items, the company's adjusted earnings came in at $1.08 per share. Wall Street was expecting earnings of $1.06 per share on revenue of $5.62 billion. 

Sales of Humira (adalimumab), a TNF inhibiting anti-inflammatory drug approved for diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis and Crohn's, were $3.54 billion, up 7.6% year-on-year. Revenue from Humira is about 64.6% of AbbVie's total revenues. AbbVie blamed slow sales of Humira on a change in shipment timing and a strong dollar for a drop in international sales during the quarter. 

Korean drugmaker Celltrion is selling a biosimilar version of Johnson & Johnson's [NYSE:JNJ] Remicade (infliximab), another anti-TNF antibodies rheumatoid arthritis drug, in a few countries outside the United States. AbbVie said that they have seen no impact of Remicade's biosimilar on Humira sales.

Sales of Pharmacyclics’ Imbruvica (ibrutinib), an orally-administered anticancer drug targeting B-cell malignancies, was $107 million, based on AbbVie's closing date of the Pharmacyclics acquisition on May 26. Full-quarter U.S. sales were $234 million.

Viekira Pak, a hepatitis C medication approved in the U.S. in December, logged sales of $385 million, up 37.01% from the $231 million reported in the previous quarter. U.S. sales of Viekira Pak came in at $277 million, missing the consensus expectations of $278 million. At this run rate, AbbVie could be at risk of missing Viekira Pak sales targets for 2015. In April, AbbVie said that the company sees annual sales of Viekira Pak to reach $3 billion by the end of 2015, with further growth in 2016, as the drug expands into other countries outside the U.S. 

Sales of Lupron, a prescription drug for treatments of advanced prostate cancer in men, endometriosis or fibroid tumors in women, and premature puberty in children were $198 million, up 6.5% year-on-year. Sales of Synthroid, a prescription drug for treatments of hypothyroidism, an enlarged thyroid gland and thyroid cancer, were $187 million, up 11.9% year-on-year. Sales of Kaletra, an anti-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug, and AndroGel were down 22.6% and 22.1% year-on-year, respectively.

Looking forward, AbbVie reaffirmed its guidance for 2015 and expects earnings in the range of $4.10 to $4.30 per share. Wall Street is expecting earnings of $4.25 per share on revenues of $23.09 billion.

On July 10, the company said that the European Commission (EC) granted marketing authorization for Imbruvica (ibrutinib) for the treatment of Waldenstrom's macroglobulinemia (WM), a rare, slow growing blood cancer, in adult patients who have received at least one prior therapy, or in first line treatment for patients unsuitable for chemo-immunotherapy. 

AbbVie said on July 24 that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Technivie (ombitasvir, paritaprevir, and ritonavir tablets) in combination with ribavirin (RBV) for the treatment of adults with genotype 4 (GT4) chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, who do not have cirrhosis.

From our technical analysis, ABBV broke out the symmetrical triangle in May at $65.50 per share and the price projection is $80.36, determined by adding the width of the triangle pattern to the point of breakout. In a Bloomberg report, Evercore ISI analyst Umer Raffat said in a July 25 note that Allergan [NYSE:AGN] might be interested buying Biogen [NASDAQ:BIIB] or AbbVie. In the case that Allergan buys AbbVie, ABBV stock could skyrocket to the top of the trading channel, which is about $80 per share.

Deutsche Bank has a Buy rating on the stock and a price target of $85.00, citing that the addition of Imbruvica completely changes the growth profile of the company and helps EPS and revenues to grow continuously, despite potential biosimilar challenges starting in 2017. 

The mean analysts' consensus price target for ABBV is $75.80, according to Yahoo Finance.

Disclosure: Long Position ABBV, AGN and BIIB. No position in JNJ.

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