BIOPHARMA

Actavis Beats Big on First-Quarter 2015 Earnings and Revenues

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Tue May 19, 2015

In the first-quarter ended March 2015, Actavis Plc [NYSE:ACT] reported revenues of $4.23 billion, up 59% year-over-year and non-GAAP EPS with ex-items of $4.30 per share, up 23% year-over-year. Wall Street was expecting earnings of $4.05 per share on revenue of $3.84 billion.

Actavis has over 1000 products in a wide range of therapeutic categories, including antibiotics, anti-inflammatories, oncology medications, cardiovascular treatments, respiratory products, dermatology products and treatments for central nervous system and metabolic disorders. 

North American Brands revenue increased to $1.74 billion from $594 million, up 193% year on year, driven by acquisitions and sales of legacy products including Namenda®, Bystolic®, Linzess®, Lo Loestrin® Fe, Estrace® Cream, Daliresp™ and Tudorza®.

North American Generics and International revenue increased to $1.78 billion from $1.67 billion, up 6.59% year on year, driven by all brands, branded generics, generics and over-the-counter pharmaceutical revenue derived outside North America. Key products include Lidoderm® and generic Concerta®.

Anda Distribution revenue increased 18.3% to $461.6 million, compared to $390.2 million in the first quarter 2014. Actavis' Anda, Inc. Distribution business primarily distributes generic, select brand pharmaceutical products, vaccines, injectables and OTC medicines from more than 200 suppliers to more than 60,000 U.S. locations.

Actavis acquired Allergan, the maker of Botox, in November 2014 for $66 billion. The revenue from Allergan businesses for the first quarter 2015 was $258.4 million.

Looking forward, Actavis raised its 2015 guidance estimates of total revenues of between $20.5 to $21.0 billion and a non-GAAP diluted EPS of between $17.00 to $18.50 per share that include its Allergan business. This is compared with analysts' estimates for $17.83 per share on revenues of $21.49 billion. Actavis said it plans to change its corporate name to Allergan. 

Actavis is transitioning all Namenda IR twice-daily tablet patients to Namenda XR®, a once-daily product. In September 2014, the company was sued by New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman over claims it is trying to block generic competition by the transition from a twice-daily to a once-daily product to maintain high prices. 

A federal court judge issued a preliminary injunction in December to continue selling the twice-daily tablet Namenda IR. Namenda generated total revenues of $396 million in first quarter 2015, with revenues from Namenda IR and Namenda XR of $245.4 million and $150.6 million, respectively.

On February 27, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted Actavis and Medicines360, a nonprofit women's health pharmaceutical company, the approval of LILETTA™ (levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system) for use by women to prevent pregnancy for up to three years. LILETTA is placed in the uterus by a healthcare professional and works by continuously releasing levonorgestrel, a progestin, to prevent pregnancy.

Actavis is collaborating with Amgen [NASDAQ:AMGN] to develop and commercialize, on a worldwide basis, biosimilar versions of Herceptin®, Avastin®, Rituxan/Mab Thera®, and Erbitux®. Actavis is also collaborating with privately held Itero Biopharmaceuticals to develop a recombinant follicle stimulating hormone (rFSH) product, as a biosimilar molecule for the treatment of female infertility.

From our technical analysis, ACT broke out the symmetrical triangle in August 2014 with the price projection of $275 per share, determined by adding the width at the top of the pattern to the point of breakout. The stock broke out the $275 per share level in January and is moving upward in a rising wedge pattern. 

The stock made a breakout attempt in March where ACT hit an all-time high of $317.72 per share before pulling back. Since then, the stock has been bouncing between the 50-day and 100-day SMA. We expect ACT to make a breakout attempt at around the $304 per share level. In the event of a rising wedge breakout, the projected price is $392 per share. 

The 12-month target price for ACT on Yahoo Finance is $346.00 per share. Actavis will report its second quarter 2015 earnings on August 3-7. Analysts are expecting earnings of $4.40 per share, up 28.7%, on revenue of $5.72 billion, up 117%.

Disclosure: Long Position ACT in Portfolio.

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