The U.S. Dollar index (DXY), a weighted geometric index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose for the second day in a row to close at 98.06 on Tuesday, despite Friday’s weak payroll report that the U.S. economy added just 126,000 jobs, missing economists’ expectations of a 245,000 jobs gain.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its non-manufacturing index came in at 56.5% last month, from 56.9% in February, making the third straight drop and missing Wall Street's expectations of 56.9%. A reading over 50% indicates more companies are expanding.
The ISM New Orders index, however, printed at 57.8%, 1.1% higher than the reading of 56.7% registered in February. Their Employment index saw an increase of 0.2% to 56.6%, below the February reading of 56.4%, still indicating growth for the 13th consecutive month, said the ISM.
On Monday, the currency markets apparently shrugged off the Friday jobs report and focused more on the ISM non-manufacturing data, which showed that the U.S. non-manufacturing sector still continued expanding, but at a slightly slower pace last month.
The DXY also received support from a weak Japanese yen as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided on Tuesday to hold the benchmark interest rates at 2.25%. The AUD/JPY surged 1.19% to close at 91.81 yen per Australian dollar, while the USD/JPY, which bounced off the trend line support at 118.77 yen per dollar on Monday in response to the weak U.S. jobs and ISM reports, surged 1.18% to close at 120.33 yen per dollar.
The USD/JPY has been trading in a bullish ascending triangle since November 2014, with the head resistances between the 120.50, or ~ 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the 122 yen per dollar levels.
The EUR/USD didn’t fare well and tumbled 1.63% in two days to close at U.S. $1.0816 dollars per euro as Greece continues dragging their feet and has failed to reach any deal with the European Union and the IMF.
The Greek government is now saying that Germany owes Greece nearly 279 billion euros in war reparations for the Nazi occupation during World War II. According to the BBC, German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel said it was "dumb" to link Greece's bailout by the eurozone with the question of war reparations.
If there is no deal, Greece’s government faces the prospect of running out of money in a few weeks. Some Greek policy makers are now saying that their piggy bank will be empty by mid-April.
From our technical viewpoint, the DXY has been moving in a symmetrical triangle pattern since mid-March as the currency market can’t decide in what direction it will break. The dollar bulls were back in control after the DXY successfully retested the 96.2 support level, or 50% Fibonacci retracement, on March 26 after a batch of weak U.S. economic data.
In the event of a symmetrical triangle breakout, the DXY could move to the upside toward the 102, or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, level. If the DXY decides to pull back and break to the downside, there are technical supports at the 96.2 and 95 levels. |