FOREX

EUR/JPY FX Cross Rate Under Downward Pressure as the ECB May Expand QE Beyond September 2016

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Fri Sep 4, 2015

The EUR/JPY closed at 133.59 yen per euro on Thursday, down 1.21% from the previous close, after the European Central Bank (ECB) downgraded its inflation forecast next year to 1.1%, from its June forecast of 1.5%, and the eurozone GDP growth in 2016 to 1.7%, from its June forecast of 1.9%. ECB President Mario Draghi said the central bank could extend the 60 billion euro monthly bond-buying or quantitative easing (QE) program beyond its original deadline of September 2016.

Traders were also bullish on the Japanese yen after the global financial information and services firm Markit, said Thursday that its Nikkei Japan Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 53.7, from 51.2 in July, to reach the highest level since October 2013. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. 

The global financial market turmoil has sent the Japanese yen skyrocketing as currency traders were selling the U.S. dollar, British pound and euro and moved their cash into the Japanese yen as a safe-haven trade. The USD/JPY currency pair tumbled 1.22%, to as low as 118.61 yen per dollar, while the EUR/JPY dipped 1% to an intraday low of 132.23 yen per euro on Friday, after the U.S. Labor Department said that the U.S. non-farm payrolls came in at 174,000 for August, well below Wall Street economists' expectations of 222,000. In fact, the jobs reports missed expectations for three months straight. 

The unemployment rate fell to 5.1%, from 5.3%, the lowest since early 2008, as more than 261,000 people left the labor force in August, pushing the labor force participation rate to a 38-year low at 62.6%, meaning 94 million Americans, 16 years and older, did not have a job and were not actively trying to find one. 

From our technical viewpoint, the EUR/JPY just broke down the symmetrical triangle and the projected price is 127.87 yen per euro, determined by adding the width at the top of the pattern to the point of breakout. The downward pressure could accelerate if the currency market is convinced that China's economy is heading for a hard landing. So far, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is not convinced of the need for further easing. The BoJ might change their mind if the currency pair dips below 130 yen per euro.

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