Gold Loses Momentum as Swiss Voters Reject Referendum

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Sun Nov 30, 2014

Gold price is currently traded at U.S. $1150.30 per ounce, down another U.S. $15 per ounce from the Friday close on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Globex, after the Swiss voters rejected the gold referendum. The CME Globex is an electronic trading platform, mostly used for off-hour trading. I expect that the gold price will slide even more tomorrow as the Wall Street big boys and girls are back from the Thanksgiving holiday.

Just a reminder, the Swiss voters were asked whether the Swiss National Bank (SNB) should build up its gold holdings from 8% to at least 20% of its total assets to backup the Swiss franc. If the referendum was accepted, the SNB would have to sell foreign reserves, most likely euros, in order to buy at least 1,500 tons of gold, costing about US$ 57 billion at current gold prices.

From a technical viewpoint, the gold price could retest the November 7 low at U.S. $1130.40 per ounce and bounce from there. If it doesn't bounce from there, the next supports would be at ~ US$ 1089 an ounce (50% Fibonacci Retracement). There is a good chance that the ECB announces some type of a quantitative easing, or QE, at the December 4 meeting. This could be good or bad for gold, but nobody knows at this point.

Also keep in mind that the ratio between paper gold, known as CME gold futures traded on the CME, and physical gold could be at least 50 or as high as 100. It means that there are contracts worth 50 ounces or 100 ounces for every one ounce of actual physical gold in the COMEX warehouses. Thus, the volatility in gold prices could continue regardless of the backstop by the central banks around the world.

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