THAILAND SET

The SET Bounced off the 1,370 Technical Support as Foreign Investors Continue to Sell into any Rally

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Wed Aug 19, 2015

Related Ticker: iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF [NYSEARCA:THD]

The SET traded between the 1,370 support and 1,380 resistance levels on Wednesday in light volume, about 9.4 billion shares or less-than-half of the previous day's volume. The index managed to close up 0.47% at 1,379.12, despite heavy selling by foreign investors. The foreign investors’ net sells were about 4.55 billion baht on Wednesday, representing about 21% of the foreign investor’s net sells so far this month, or about 21.9 billion baht. The year-to-date foreign investors’ net sells now top 63.9 billion baht, up 157% from the same period last year. 

The SET might be tradeable but don’t call the bottom yet, unless you want to be wrong. There is a support at 1,350.12, or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, if the SET wants to go lower.

Separately, the U.S. Federal Reserve just released the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Surprisingly, bullet notes from the minutes showed up on Bloomberg terminals about 30 minutes before the official release time, 6:00 PM GMT on Wednesday. Bloomberg said, "In the process of preparing embargoed material we inadvertently sent a headline ahead of the embargo,", meaning Bloomberg is taking the blame for the leak.

The Federal Reserve seems to be concerned about risks to the U.S. GDP forecast, which is tilted to the downside. The Fed also said, “Most judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved, but they noted that conditions were approaching that point,”... meaning what?!

Don’t make something out of the minutes though, as they have been revised more than twice, Bloomberg said. One should pay attention to what the Fed is doing and not what they say, as they have said a lot of things. The U.S. 2-Year Treasury Note yield tumbled 9.01% to 0.653% at 19:24:49 GMT. And here is the message from the bond market to the Fed, “Don’t hike the rate in September, or else you will crash the U.S. economy”.

THAILAND SET INVESTMENT RESEARCH

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