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The SET tumbled 1.1% to close at 1,473.23 on Monday, after a breakdown attempt at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, as Greece’s leftist Tsipras government won the referendum with a “No” vote. Mr. Tsipras told the Greek people on Thursday that he will travel to Brussels on Monday and sign the deal. Unfortunately, Mr. Tsipras forgot to mention to the Greek people that the bailout program had expired at midnight on June 30. Therefore, Mr. Tsipras’ promise of signing the deal this week would be out of the question as German Chancellor Angela Merkel needs to get an approval from the Bundestag, even before she can sit down and negotiate with Mr. Tsipras. The Bundestag’s members are now on summer break until mid-September. So, good luck with that.
Barclays said Greece will run out of liquidity as of July 20. To keep the Greek banks from collapsing, the ECB could unfreeze the ceiling of their emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) program at €88.6 billion or Greek banks may start raiding their customer deposits, meaning they can seize at least 30% of deposits above €8,000 if the Greek government gives them the green light. The ECB said late Monday that they will leave the ELA ceiling unchanged but also said that the ELA can only be provided against sufficient collateral, meaning tighter collateral terms for Greek bank liquidity aid.
From our technical viewpoint, the SET has been moving in a symmetrical triangle since February or March, as the Thailand economic outlooks continue to be weak, due to sluggish private consumption and continued contraction in exports. Since mid-May, the SET has turned increasing bearish as the Greek debt crisis seems to have no end in sight.
The concern now is that the SET made another new L4 low at 1,473.23 yesterday. The SET has been moving in a bearish lower high (L-H) chart pattern since it peaked in February, meaning every high is lower than the previous high while every low is lower than the previous low. This lower high chart pattern signals a continuous bearish downtrend.
SET big cap bank stocks, including KBANK and SCB, look broken. PTT could also be facing a downward risk, as the crude price is heading back to U.S. $50 a barrel again. |
