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PTT Pcl [SET:PTT], Thailand's largest state-controlled fully integrated gas and oil company, said on November 12, 2015, that its third-quarter 2015 revenues were 505.07 billion baht, down 33.34% year-on-year, missing the 640.19 billion baht consensus estimate of 5 analysts, according to the Financial Times. The company said the revenue shortfall was mainly due to lower prices of petroleum and petrochemical products, while the depreciation of the baht against the dollar led to a foreign exchange loss of 6.9 billion baht.
The company posted a net loss of 26.6 billion baht in the third-quarter, missing the average forecast for a loss of 24 billion baht from 8 analysts polled by Reuters. Its previous record loss was 26.6 billion baht in the fourth-quarter of 2014. In 2014, PTT reported a dividend of 11.00 baht, down 15.38% year-over-year.
The next earnings announcement is expected on February 18. According to Reuters, analysts have already cut their earnings forecasts for PTT by 30-60% to reflect the weaker performance of PTT's subsidiaries, which are affected by the weakness of global oil prices.
Last week, PTT cut its 2015 estimated investment budget to 51 billion baht, from an earlier forecast 55.7 billion baht, mainly due to a postponement in new overseas investments. The company plans to spend 38.9 billion baht next year before lifting that to 62.6 billion baht in 2017, according to Reuters. The company expects global crude oil prices to be between $53 and $56 a barrel in 2016, versus a range of $50 to $51 this year.
From our technical viewpoint, PTT has been moving in a bearish broadening top chart pattern since 2010. One may want to be very careful if the shares drop to the 225 and 230 baht per share levels, as the share price could move sharply downward if these support levels are broken. The next support levels are at 175 and 150 baht per share. According to the Financial Times, the 12 polled investment analysts covering PTT gave the company a consensus Outperform rating with a forecasted price target of 320 baht a share.
Disclosure: No position and no recommendation. |
