THAILAND SET

Robinson Department Store Shares Soar after a Technical Breakout

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Thu Jul 7, 2016

Robinson Department Store Pcl (SET:ROBINS), 27.75% stake owned by Central Retail Corporation and 26.08% stake owned by CRG Service Co., Ltd, and its subsidiaries operate department stores across Thailand under the name “Robinson”. The company currently has 42 stores, comprised of 11 stores in Greater Bangkok and 31 stores in the upcountry. In addition, Robinson currently has 2 stores in Vietnam. Central Retail Corporation and Central Restaurants Group (CRG) Co., Ltd. are part of the Central Group of Companies or Central Holding, a privately-owned conglomerate holding company, based in Thailand.

The Robinson Department Store offers lines of products, such as soft line products and hard line products. Soft line products include ladies’ wear, men’s wear, cosmetics, accessories and children’s wear. Hard line products include home decoration and household apparatus, gifts and toys. According to Financial Times, the company has also developed its own product designs which can be divided into its private brand and exclusive brands, which are international brands that are imported and exclusively available at Robinson. 

The company said on May 11, 2016, that its first-quarter 2016 revenues were 7.11 billion baht, beating the 6.69 billion baht consensus estimate of 4 analysts, according to the Financial Times. Robinson posted first-quarter 2016 earnings of 0.62 baht per share, exceeding the 0.56 baht per share consensus estimate of 2 analysts. In March, the company said it is planning to invest 16.8 billion baht on store expansions over the next five years. By 2020, Robinson expects to have about 56 branches nationwide.

For 2015, Robinson Department Store reported a dividend of 1.0 baht per share, an 11.11% increase from 2014. The 16 analysts covering the company expect dividends of 1.12 baht per share for the upcoming fiscal year, representing a year-over-year increase of 11.50%. 

The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce said this week that its consumer confidence index dropped to 71.6 in June, a 25-month low, according to the Bangkok Post. Weak consumer confidence and heavy consumer debt, which surpassed 85% of the GDP, may be weighing on spending and earnings of Thai department store operators.

From our technical viewpoint, ROBINS broke out the descending wedge chart pattern at 42 baht a share in early March. The stock continues to move higher with the objective price target of 74 baht a share after the breakout event. According to the Financial Times, the consensus amongst 22 polled investment analysts covering Robinson Department Store gave the company a Hold rating, with the median 12-month price target of 59 baht a share.

Disclosure: No position and no recommendation for any companies mentioned.

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