THAILAND SET

PTTEP Shares Still Buoyant Despite Mixed Third-Quarter Results and Weak Crude Prices

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Fri Nov 11, 2016

PTT Exploration and Production PCL (SET:PTTEP), a 65.29% stake owned by PTT PCL (SET:PTT) as of August 15, 2016, is a Thailand-based company engaged in the exploration and production of petroleum. The company operates three business segments: oil and gas exploration and production, overseas pipelines and investment in projects strategically connected to the energy business. 

PTTEP has invested in E&P activities in Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia, Algeria, Oman, Mozambique, Australia, Canada, Brazil, and Kenya. The parent company, PTT PCL, is Thailand’s largest fully integrated gas and oil company and the eighth largest energy company in the Asia/Pacific rim region, according to Platts. As of September 30, 2016, PTTEP and its subsidiaries had total assets of US$19.06 billion (661.45 billion baht).

The company said on October 27 that its third-quarter 2016 revenues were 37.12 billion baht, down 24.19% year-on-year, missing the 37.33 billion baht consensus estimate of 6 analysts, according to the Financial Times. PTTEP posted third-quarter 2016 earnings of 1.11 (US$0.04) baht per share, compared to a loss of about 11.36 (US$0.32) baht per share last year, beating the 0.93 baht per share consensus estimate. 

PTTEP blamed its weak revenues on an overall decline in the average selling prices of crude oil. The company, however, turned a profit of US$156 million during the third-quarter due mainly to an absence of an impairment loss on assets and gains from oil hedging of about US$23 million. The next earnings announcement is expected on January 26, 2017.

For 2015, PTTEP reported a dividend of 3.00 baht per share, down 33.33% from 2014. The 23 analysts covering the company expect dividends of 2.18 baht per share for the upcoming fiscal year, representing a year-over-year decrease of 27.23%. 

Technically, shares of PTTEP ran up about 100% from the January low of 41.25 baht per share and the easy money may already have been made. In the short-term, the stock is moving in a symmetrical triangle chart pattern with technical support at the 80 baht level. PTTEP trades along with crude oil prices so the stock could move lower if oil prices head back to retest the $41 per barrel level. 

According to the Financial Times, the consensus amongst 25 polled investment analysts covering PTT Exploration and Production gave the company a Hold rating, with the median 12-month price target of 85 baht per share, as of November 4, 2016.

Disclosure: No position and no recommendation.

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