THAILAND SET

Investors Turned Bearish After Bangkok Dusit Medical Cuts 2016 Revenue Growth Target

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Thu Oct 27, 2016

Bangkok Dusit Medical Services PCL (SET:BDMS) is one of the largest private hospital operators in Thailand, with approximately 102.1 billion baht in assets as of June 2016. BDMS currently has 41 hospitals in Thailand and 2 hospitals in Cambodia with a total of 7,519 beds, providing healthcare for domestic and overseas patients. As of January 29, 2016, Dr. Prasert Prasarttong-Osoth, M.D., the founder, President and CEO of BDMS, and his family own 22.38% stake of the company, Mr. Wichai Thongtang, former Executive Chairman of medical service company Prasit Patana PCL (acquired by BDMS in 2011) and his family own 10.74% stake of the company, and Bangkok Airways PCL (SET:BA) and Bangkok Airways Holding Co., Ltd. own 7.83% stake of the company.

Dr. Prasarttong-Osoth is the CEO of Bangkok Airways PCL and the Chairman of ANB Laboratories Co. Ltd. He is also the founder of Bangkok Media and Broadcasting Co, operator of variety high-definition channel PTTV, which provides in-flight content for Bangkok Airways and on-ground content for BDMS hospitals.

On August 15, 2016, Bangkok Dusit Medical Services reported first-half 2016 revenues of 31.27 billion baht, up 7.97% year-on-year from 28.96 billion baht, missing the 32.75 billion baht estimate of an analyst, according to the Financial Times. BDMS reported first-half 2016 net profits of 4.08 billion baht, up 7.83% year-on-year from 3.78 billion baht. The EPS was 0.26 baht per share, in line with estimates. 

For 2015, BDMS reported a dividend of 0.26 baht per share, which represented a 13.04% decrease from 2014. The 21 analysts covering the company expect dividends of 0.28 baht per share for the upcoming fiscal year, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.69%. The next earnings announcement from Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, for the third-quarter 2016, is expected on November 11. 

According to the Bangkok Post, BDMS announced in early October that the company will spend an investment of 2 billion baht to develop newly acquired Swissotel Nai Lert Park into a holistic services medical center, focusing on high-end foreign and Thai patients.

From our technical viewpoint, BDMS has been trading in a descending wedge chart pattern since late April 2016 and is now bumping into the 22 baht per share head resistance. The stock needs to break out, or else risk pulling back to the 20-20.5 baht level. Investors turned bearish on the stock after Narumol Noi-am, company CFO, told Reuters in early September that the company cut its 2016 revenue growth target to 8-10%, from 11-12%, after lower-than-expected growth in the first-half. 

According to the Financial Times, the consensus amongst 25 polled investment analysts covering Bangkok Dusit Medical Services gave the company an Outperform rating, with the median 12-month price target of 25.50 baht per share, as of October 21, 2016.

Disclosure: No position and no recommendation.

THAILAND SET INVESTMENT RESEARCH

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