THAILAND SET

Bangchak Petroleum Stuck in Trading Range Along With Crude Prices

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Tue Sep 27, 2016

Bangchak Petroleum PCL (SET:BCP), 15.60% stake owned by Vayupak Mutual Funds One, 14.31% stake owned by the Social Security Office of Thailand and 9.98% stake owned by the Ministry of Finance of Thailand, as of September 9, 2016, is a Thai energy company with its core businesses consisting of petroleum refining at a current production capacity of 120,000 barrels per day and distributing gasoline and oil products through over 1,000 Bangchak Green gas service stations around the country. Its other businesses are power production from solar energy, biomass energy, petroleum exploration and production, and innovation-oriented companies.

Bangchak Petroleum said on Aug 9 that its second-quarter 2016 revenues, ending June 30, were 37.26 billion baht, down 9.9% year-on-year. The revenues missed the consensus estimate of 38.86 billion baht amongst 4 polled analysts following the company, according to the Financial Times. BPC blamed the reduction in its oil-related businesses on the sharp decline in global crude oil prices, but said its total sales volume increased by 6% year-on-year. 

The company posted second-quarter 2016 diluted earnings of 1.76 baht per share, down 13.30% during the same quarter last year. The earnings per share exceeded the 1.75 baht consensus estimate of the 3 analysts covering the company. Bangchak Petroleum is expecting to report its third-quarter 2016 earnings on Nov 7. For 2015, the company reported a dividend of 2.0 baht per share, a 100% increase from 2014. The 13 analysts covering the company expect dividends of 1.56 baht per share for the upcoming fiscal year, representing a year-over-year decrease of 21.95%. 

BCPG PLC (SET:BCPG), the solar power unit of Bangchak Petroleum PLC, was spun off and began trading on the Stock Exchange of Thailand on September 28. BCPG sold about 600 million shares, or a 30% stake, in the initial public offering to raise about 5.9 billion baht. BCPG operates solar power plants with a total capacity of 118 megawatts (MW) in Thailand and 164 MW in Japan and planned to boost total capacity to 500 MW in 2020, according to President Chaiwat Kovavisarach.

From our technical viewpoint, shares of Bangchak Petroleum have been trading in the range between 28 and 36 baht since the end of 2012. The stock is now supported by the 15-year trendline and could bounce from here, if crude oil prices move higher. According to the Financial Times, the consensus amongst 17 polled investment analysts covering Bangchak Petroleum PCL gave the company an Outperform rating, with the median 12-month price target of 37.70 baht a share, as of Sept 23, 2016.

Disclosure: No position in any companies mentioned and no recommendation.

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