TECH

Apple Reported Another Blowout Quarter as the Stock Continues to Climb the Wall of Worry

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Tue Apr 28, 2015

In the fiscal 2015 second quarter ended March 2015, Apple [NASDAQ:AAPL] reported total revenues of $58 billion, up 27.2% year-over-year and net profit of $13.6 billion, or EPS of $2.33, up 40.4% year-over-year. Wall Street was expecting earnings of $2.16 per share on revenue of $56.1 billion. International sales accounted for 69% of the quarter’s revenue. There were record second quarter sales of iPhone and Mac, and an all-time record performance of the App Store, except iPads. 

A total of 12.6 million iPads were sold last quarter, down 23.3% year-over-year. Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, said during the company’s earnings call on Monday that Apple's iPad sales are being challenged by both the new iPhone 6 Plus and the company's computers. He also said that "We're clearly seeing cannibalization from iPhone and on the other side from the Mac. And of course, as I've said before, we've never worried about that."

Mr. Cook probably referred to his earlier comment during the company's earnings call in September that, “Some people might come into the Apple store and look at buying an iPad and a Mac, and opt for the iPad or some people look at the iPhone and the iPad, and opt for the iPhone”. 

Apple sold a total of 61.2 million iPhones last quarter, up from 43.7 million, or 40% from the same period a year ago. Analysts were expecting iPhone sales of 57.3 million units. It seems like it worked out fine for Apple though, if iPad sales were being cannibalized by the iPhone 6 Plus.

The company began its promotional launch of its Apple Watch in Apple stores on April 10, and promised to begin shipments and pre-order deliveries starting April 24. There are already 3,000 plus apps for Apple Watch on the App Store.

The company said that it will increase the share repurchase authorization to $140 billion from $90 billion and boost its dividend 11%, to 52 cents per share. Looking forward, Apple expects revenue in the fiscal 2015 third quarter ending June 2015 to be between $46 billion and $48 billion. Wall Street was expecting earnings of $1.68 per share on revenue of $47.09 billion.

In the 5-year stock chart, the AAPL chart pattern completed a cup shape in June 2014 with the base at $88.50 and bottom at $52.28, giving a cup base depth of about 30%. Most cups come with a handle, or a smaller correction within the base, that serves as a last shakeout before the stock surges to new highs.

Many technicians expected the stock to pull back in July 2014. Nonetheless, a stock pullback did not materialize as institutional investors and a long list of hedge funds were taking long positions in AAPL, while getting out of Google’s stock [NASDAQ:GOOGL]. 

From the cup without handle model, our price projection for AAPL is $151, determined by adding the depth of the cup pattern to the point of breakout. The stock has been climbing the “Wall of Worry” in a narrow bullish channel as pundits on financial media were raising all kinds of concerns about iPhone sales, competitors such as Samsung and Xiaomi, etc. 

Analysts at FBR Capital initiated coverage of Apple last week with an Outperform and set a $185 target price for the stock, meaning Apple could be the first publicly owned company having a price tag of over $1 trillion.

Disclosure: Long Core Position AAPL in Portfolio. No Positions in GOOGL.

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