CRUDE OIL

Is Natural Gas the Next Shoe to Drop?

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Fri Dec 12, 2014

Natural gas futures for delivery in January 15 [NGF15.NYM], which is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, fell U.S. $0.07 per million British thermal units (BTU) or -1.73% on Monday, to U.S. $3.73 per million BTU, along with the crude oil futures [CLF15.NYM], despite the recent forecast of frigid temperatures in the U.S. Midwest until the end of December.

Crude oil futures fell U.S. $1.80 per barrel again today, to U.S. $55.49 per barrel, or –4.01% after OPEC said no cut in output even if oil prices fall as low as U.S. $40 per barrel.

The price of natural gas could still be under pressure as there is a 55% chance that the weather in the U.S. Midwest will be normal, or warmer than normal, in January and February 2015. Just a reminder, the home heating season in the U.S. from November through March drives natural gas consumption and prices.

Technically, the natural gas price is bouncing on the support level of U.S. $3.66 per million BTU or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The next support level is U.S. $3.26 per million BTU.The price quote for liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is natural gas that has been cryogenically chilled to the approximate density of crude oil, depends upon the destination, for obvious reasons.

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