The Saudis have ramped up production above 10 million bpd for the past few months. Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its June production of 10.564 million bpd was a record, exceeding a previous all-time high set in 1980. Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia’s commercial petroleum stockpiles increased to 320 million barrels, the highest since at least 2002, from 319.5 million barrels in June, according to data on the Riyadh-based Joint Organisations Data Initiative's website in late September.
As of October 13, there are 476,972 long positions of non-commercial contracts of light sweet crude oil futures, traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange by hedge funds and dealers, a decrease of 19,872 long positions from last week, according to the Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) each Friday.
This is compared to about 383,881 short positions, a decrease of 7,591 short positions from last week where light sweet crude oil contracts are traded in units of 1,000 barrels. Hedge funds and dealers have decreased their net long positions by about 12,281 contracts, as crude oil prices were unable to break out the $50 per barrel resistance.
Technically, the crude oil price has been moving in a bearish ascending wedge chart pattern since the end of September. The crude oil price just broke down the ascending wedge and the projected price is $38 per barrel. There are technical supports at around $44.50 per barrel and $42 per barrel trendline resistance, respectively.