BIOPHARMA

Biogen Idec’s Fourth-Quarter EPS Surged 113% on Strong Tecfidera Oral M.S. Drug Sales

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Mon Feb 2, 2015

In the fourth-quarter ended December 2014, Biogen Idec [NASDAQ:BIIB] reported total revenues of $2.64 billion, up 34% year-over-year and EPS with ex-items of $4.09, up 113% year-over-year. Wall Street was expecting earnings of $3.78 per share on revenue of $2.64 billion. 

The company reported Tecfidera sales of $916 million, up 16.39% quarter-over-quarter, beating Wall Street expectations of $880 million. Hemophilia drugs, Alprolix and Eloctate, posted sales of $40 million and $37 million, respectively, compared to $25 million and $22 million in the third-quarter 2014. 

Looking forward, Biogen sees a revenue forecast of between $11.06 billion and $11.25 billion in 2015 and a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $16.60 to $17.00 per share, compared with analysts' estimates for $16.37 per share.

In December, Biogen announced that they would move BIIB037 (human anti-amyloid beta mAb) to Phase III for Alzheimer’s disease, based on its promising Phase Ib results. The drug has shown to reduce amyloid plaque in the brain and statistically significant improvement in cognition at 54 weeks.

Biogen Idec is still facing patent litigation from Danish company, Forward Pharma [NASDAQ:FWP], over patent rights for the small molecule dimethyl fumarate (DMF), the same active compound in Biogen Idec’s Tecfidera. In November, Forward Pharma filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Biogen Idec in Germany and asked for damages.

Since the beginning of 2014, BIIB has been moving in a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. The stock started to break out of the symmetrical triangle in December and a breakout was confirmed in early January. A headline risk could be the outcome of the Forward Pharma patent litigation. 

It needs to be pointed out that BIIB is traded along with the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index [NASDAQ:IBB] and maybe counter traded with Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF [NYSEARCA:SMH].

From our technical analysis, the price projection for BIIB is $456.00. RBC Capital Markets raised their target price for BIIB last Friday from $400.00 to $445 while Deutsche Bank’s price target for BIIB was raised from $430.00 to $460.00.

Disclosure: Long Position BIIB in Portfolio

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