BIOPHARMA

Celgene Said its Hematology and Oncology Sales Will More Than Double by 2020

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Tue Feb 3, 2015

In the fourth-quarter ended December 2014, Celgene Corp. [NASDAQ:CELG] reported total revenues of $2.09 billion, up 18.74% year-over-year and EPS with ex-items of $1.01, up 32.9% year-over-year. Wall Street was expecting earnings of $0.99 per share on revenue of $2.09 billion.

For the full year of 2014, revenue was $7.67 billion, up 18% compared to $6.494 billion for the previous year. Full year GAAP EPS was $2.39, up 42.3% compared to GAAP EPS of $1.68 for 2013.

The company reported sales of their multiple myeloma drug, Revlimid, of $1.32 billion, up 16% year-over-year. Full year Revlimid sales were $4.98 billion, an increase of 16%. Cancer drug, Abraxane, posted sales of $236 million, an increase of 17% year-over-year. 

Looking forward, Celgene sees its revenue between $9.0 billion and $9.5 billion in 2015 and a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $3.71 per share, compared with analysts' estimates for $3.69 per share. Celgene forecasts Revlimid sales to climb 14.5% to $5.7 billion as the company gains wider approval for the different lines of treatment. 

For 2017, Celgene forecasts net product sales to be between $13 billion and $14 billion, and EPS of $7.50. The company expects to more than double its hematology and oncology sales to $20 billion in 2020 and EPS of $12.5 per share.

Since the beginning of 2013, CELG has been moving in a rising wedge chart pattern. The stock broke out of the rising wedge in October 2014. A headline risk could be the strong U.S. currency as Celgene sees the negative impact of foreign exchange on net product sales to approach $100 million in 2015.

It needs to be pointed out that CELG is traded along with the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index [NASDAQ:IBB] and maybe counter traded with Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF [NYSEARCA:SMH].

From our technical analysis, the 12-22 month price projection for CELG is $162.00. Citigroup raised their target price for CELG last Friday from $119.00 to $143 while Deutsche Bank’s price target for CELG was raised from $134.00 to $160.00.

Disclosure: Long Position CELG in Portfolio

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