TECH

Investing in Carbon Credit Markets

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Wed Dec 17, 2008

The six major greenhouse gases (GHG), emitted from processes such as the fermentation of organic matter, known as agricultural GHG, and fossil fuel combustion, are methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N20), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexofluoride (SF6) and carbon dioxide (CO2). The Kyoto protocol mandates that by the year 2012, the emission of greenhouse gases are collectively reduced to 5.2% below the emission levels in the year 1990.

The concept of carbon credit or carbon emission reduction credit trading is to allow companies to sell their excess carbon emissions in the form of credits to commercial and individual companies that are unable to reduce their carbon emission footprint to meet their greenhouse gas emission limitations.

According to London, UK-based New Carbon Finance, the world’s carbon markets could reach the $116 billion mark by the end of 2008. The growth is expected to accelerate to 2012, when it should reach $550 billion. If the US introduces a federal cap-and-trade scheme, the carbon market could turn over $3 trillion per year by 2020.

Carbon Commodities - The two dominant tradable carbon commodities in the Global Carbon Exchange are EU Allowances (EUA) and Certified Emission Reduction (CER). An EUA unit allows a holder, or company, the right to emit one metric ton of CO2

Under the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), given EU Allowances are issued to companies in certain industries which are required to participate in the scheme. If the companies produce less than their given allowance, they can sell the EUA surplus in a carbon trading exchange, such as the European Climate Exchange (ECX). Companies that emit more carbon than their allowances need to purchase carbon credits to offset the excess emissions and avoid EUA penalties. 

The CERs are emission reduction credits that are earned from Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects and verified by the Department of Energy (DOE) under the Kyoto Protocol. In this cap-and-trade scheme, companies from industrialized countries invest in projects that reduce GHG emissions in developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reduction in their own countries. According to the World Bank "State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2007" report, EUAs made up 78% of the value of the carbon credits traded on the open market. 

Other tradable emission reductions are Emission Reduction Units (ERU) and Verified Emission Reductions (VER). The ERUs are generated from emission reductions from Joint Implementation (JI) projects defined in Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol. The VERs, also known as voluntary offsetting of greenhouse gas emissions, allow companies to offset emissions of greenhouse gases produced in one location by helping fund emission reduction projects that occur elsewhere. The VERs are verified by an independent third party auditor but are not otherwise approved under the Kyoto Protocol.

Trading Platform - The Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), which was launched in 2003, operates North America’s only cap-and-trade system for all six greenhouse gases. The carbon commodity futures and options traded on the CCX platform, are Carbon Financial Instrument (CFI)  contracts, each of which represents 100 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) units.

The CFI contracts are comprised of Exchange Allowances (similar to EUAs) and Exchange Offsets (similar  to CERs). Exchange Allowances are issued to emitting members in accordance with their emission baseline and the CCX Emission Reduction Schedule. Exchange Offsets are generated by qualifying offset projects which must undergo third party verification by a CCX approved verifier. Emission reductions made in North America are verified through the independent third party Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA, formerly NASD).

In addition, the Chicago Climate Futures Exchange (CCFE), a derivatives exchange of the CCX, also offers Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) futures and options contracts on RGGI CO2 allowances. The RGGI, which is made up of ten participating Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states, develops and maintains a system to report data and to track CO2 allowances for the power industry sector. Under a cap-and-trade scheme, RGGI sells emission allowances by auctioning off CO2 allowances permits as well as RGGI futures and options contracts.

In 2005, the European Climate Exchange (ECX) was launched by the CCX and is now the leading exchange operating in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The CCX is owned by the Climate Exchange Plc, which is listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) under the symbol CLE.L.

Futures contracts of Canada CO2e units are traded on the Montréal Climate Exchange (MCeX) in collaboration with the CCX. The futures contract, based on 100 Canada CO2e units as defined by the Government of Canada, allows for the emission of one metric ton of CO2e.

In March 2008, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) began listings for trading and clearing of carbon, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) based emission allowance futures and options contracts. On the NYMEX Green Exchange, all EUA's, CER's and RGGI's CO2 llowances options and futures contracts are traded in a size of 1,000 metric tons of CO2e.

Investment Strategies -  In a complex and volatile carbon market, investment strategies may include investing in funds with professional management and/or focusing on individual companies with sustainable growth fundamentals and low debt/equity ratio.

iPath® Global Carbon ETN - Investment in carbon commodities related to EU ETS and CDM mechanisms can be done through the iPath® Global Carbon ETN [NYSE:GRN]. The iPath® Global Carbon ETN is a senior, unsecured debt note linked to the Barclays Capital Global Carbon Index Total Return. The index is composed of allocations in futures and forward contracts of carbon emissions credits, both EUA and CER, and futures contracts that trade on the European Climate Exchange (ECX). It is maintained and periodically rebalanced or reweighted by Barclays Capital, a division of Barclays Bank PLC.

Since its inception in July of this year, the iPath® Global Carbon ETN has lost about 40 percent of its value, in part due to the decline in crude oil prices, a slowdown in the global economy and hedge fund redemptions.

AirShares™ EU Carbon Allowances Fund - In mid-December 2008, XShares Advisors LLC began offering the AirShares EU Carbon Allowances Fund (NYSE: ASO) to compete with the iPath® Global Carbon ETN.  This fund, which is not a mutual fund, holds unleveraged long positions in IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) futures and/or ECX CFI futures contracts. Because ECE CFI futures contracts and most of the fund assets are in euros while the shares are traded in U.S. dollars, AirShares fund investors may be subjected to additional currency fluctuation risks.

Climate Exchange PLC [LSE.CLE]Climate Exchange Plc is an Alternative Investment Market (AIM) listed company on the London Stock Exchange that specializes in emissions trading and cap-and-trade schemes for all six greenhouse gases. The company owns and operates three climate exchanges including the European Climate Exchange (ECX), the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) and the Chicago Climate Futures Exchange (CCFE). The company has also joint ventures in China, India, Canada, Australia and Japan.

The company growth strategies are to continue to expand membership and trading volumes as well as to continue developing new climate exchanges around the globe, such as the California Climate Exchange (CaCX), the New York Climate Exchange (NYCX), the Northeast Climate Exchange (NECX) and India Climate Exchange (ICX), the first pilot cap-and-trade program in India.

In 2007, the UK-based Climate Exchange posted a loss of $4.05 million, or 8.6 cents per share. Total revenue rose over ten-fold to $28.22 million, compared to $2.24 million the previous year, in part due to triple-digit growth in trading volumes on its flagship European Climate Exchange. In September, CEO Neil Eckert told Reuters in an interview that he is pretty bullish about the foreseeable future and does not see a slowdown in their business.

The company is virtually debt free with a debt/equity ratio of 0.00. CLE's share price, which has been trading as high as $3,064.5 per share in May 2008, closed on December 10 at $1272 per share. 

Camco International Ltd. [LSE:CAO] - Camco is a leading carbon asset developer with one of the world’s largest carbon credit portfolios. Camco generates carbon credits by partnering with companies to identify, co-develop and manage CDM, JI and voluntary projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Camco then arranges the sale and delivery of carbon credits to international compliance buyers and into the voluntary market.

The Jersey, UK-based Camco International lost $20.15 million, or 54.7 cents per share, last year. Total revenue rose to $23.25 million in 2007, compared to $8.02 million the previous year. The company has a debt/equity ratio of 0.03. Camco International's share closed at $34.65 per share on December 10, retreating about 75 percent from its all time high in May 2007.

Falling oil prices, growing recession fears and hedge fund redemptions continue to hit carbon prices. ECX FCI futures contracts have fallen from their July 1 peak of €29.33 to a new low on December 5 of €13.72. 

We could see the recovery of carbon prices in the second half of 2009, assuming that the global economic recovery in the early 2010 is on track. The carbon price recovery could take place slowly if hedge funds and private equity funds shy away from the investment due to price volatility and their constraints on the amount of leverage.

* Currency exchange rate £ 1 = $1.5

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