TECH

Barron’s May Have Gotten It All Wrong with Google

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Sun Dec 7, 2014

Before rushing out and buying Google [NASDAQ:GOOGL], one may want to do some fact checking and due diligence. This week, Dan Niles of AlphaOne Capital Partners said AlphaOne is shorting GOOGL. Mr. Niles believes that people have been willing to ignore the fact that Google missed revenues, five out of the last six quarters. The stock has been down 5.85% year-to-date and down 14.2% from its 52-week high. There are technical supports at around the $511-$518 levels.

AlphaOne is not the only investment firm that has turned bearish on Google. This week, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, cut their price target on the stock citing all kinds of reasons, including lower than consensus estimates, increased regulatory risk in the European Union, threats from a strong Apple product cycle, search contract renewal uncertainty from Firefox and Apple, as well as a sharp rise in capital expenditures, wages, etc. Bank of America’s opinion is that it is becoming more expensive to run Google.

Looking forward, one of Google’s major concerns is their international revenues, which represents about 58% of the company’s total revenues. In particular, the revenues from the United Kingdom, which represents about 10% of Google’s total revenues, could be at risk. Google should expect that people are going raise eyebrows when they collected over £3.3 billion in revenues from the UK last year and paid only £20.4 million in taxes through their Irish subsidiary, according to the UK’s Daily Mail.

Earlier this month, Britain's chief finance minister, George Osborne, announced a new 25% tax, known as “Google tax”, for multinational companies that dodge taxation in the European countries. More trouble for Google and other U.S big tech companies could be when the "Double Irish" tax loophole will be completely phased out, by 2020.

Just a reminder, how the “Double Irish” tax loophole works. Google sets up “Google Ireland, Ltd.” in Dublin, Ireland as their European Headquarters and “Google Ireland Holdings”, a Dublin-registered company located in Bermuda, for tax purposes. According KPMG Global, Ireland has a corporate tax rate of 12.5%, while Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas have a 0% rate.

Each quarter, Google Ireland, Ltd. pays a fee, known as royalties or a license fee, and writes it off as “Administrative expenses” to its Google Ireland Holdings in Bermuda for the right to operate (whatever). Google Ireland, Ltd. can thereby massively reduce its taxable revenue and pay less tax.

Disclosure: No long or short positions in GOOGL.

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