CRUDE OIL

Global Equity Markets Got Harpooned as US Dollar Index and OVX Break Out

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Mon Jan 05, 2015

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY pronounced “Dixie”), which broke out the 90.38 head resistance or 38.2% Fibonacci retracement last Friday, surged to a new high today at 91.78, the highest reading since December 2005. The theory behind the DXY surge came from a report on Der Spiegel that Chancellor Angela Merkel is open to a possibility of Greece exiting the Eurozone, should a new Leftist government in Athens demand concessions.

The market is now pricing in that ECB President Mario Draghi will announce a stimulus package at the next ECB policy meeting on January 22, just before the Greek snap elections on January 25. So, Forex traders dumped the euro and the DXY surged.

Crude oil is traded in an inverse correlation with the US dollar, meaning the crude oil prices decline with a strengthening US dollar. A report by the Russian news agency TUSS this weekend that Russia boosted its 2014 oil output by 0.6%, to post-Soviet record high of 10.58 million barrels per day, didn’t help much either.

OVX, traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), surged to a 2-year high at 59.72 and took out the 58.74 technical resistance level, or 50% Fibonacci retracement. Meanwhile, the crude oil futures for delivery in February 15 [CLG15.NYM] on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) tumbled more than 5% to an intra-day low of U.S. $49.96 per barrel.

And so you have it. If the crude oil and energy sector goes, so goes the market. The market selloff probably will continue into the Asian markets tomorrow. If the markets are pricing in a Greek exit, maybe it is a good idea to stay clear from the financials sector, as well as the energy sector.

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