THAILAND SET

JAS Downtrend Continues as 4G Pipe Dream Turns into a Dud

Witawat (Ed) Wijaranakula, Ph.D.
Wed Mar 30, 2016

Jasmine International Public Company Limited (SET:JAS) is a Thailand-based holding company engaged in integrated telecommunication services. According to Financial Times, the company and its subsidiaries categorize the businesses into four groups: broadband business, telecom network and service provider business, system integration business, and other businesses, which are the operation of space rental and related services for Jasmine International Tower. The company was founded on December 3, 1982 and is headquartered in Nonthaburi, Thailand.

JAS said on January 25 that its full year 2015 revenues were 13.98 billion baht, missing the 14.03 billion baht consensus estimate of 7 analysts, according to the Financial Times. The company posted full year 2015 earnings of 0.068 baht per share, missing the 0.47 baht per share consensus estimate of 3 analysts. Although revenues were up 14.01% year-on-year, earnings plunged 86.21%.

For 2015, JAS reported a dividend of 1.90 baht a share, which represented an over 1000% increase from 2014. Analysts expected a dividend of 1.49 baht a share. The 5 analysts covering the company expect dividends of 0.23 baht a share for the upcoming fiscal year, representing a year-over-year decrease of 88.11%. The next earnings announcement from JAS is expected on April 27. 

On March 21, Jasmine Mobile Broadband failed to pay the first installment of 8.04 billion baht for the 900MHz 4G spectrum it won last December, according to Bangkok Post. The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) said it confiscated a bid guarantee of 645 million baht that Jasmine had placed before the auction. Additional fines and penalties could follow.

Following the event, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) posted a SP sign prohibiting the trading of JAS shares from the afternoon trading session of March 22. JAS CEO Pete Bodharamik filed a statement to the SET, explaining that JAS Mobile Broadband missed the 4G license payment because of a delay in an investment from a potential Chinese partner, pending the partnership approval by China regulators, according to the Bangkok Post. Subsequently, the SET lifted the trading suspension on JAS shares on March 23, but requested that investors carefully make investment decisions in JAS securities. 

From our technical viewpoint, JAS shares have been falling in a downtrend channel since early 2015. The downtrend could continue until the company can provide investors with a more clear outlook for the company's future. A downside risk could be a slew of downgrades from the financial analysts covering the company, which will put selling pressure on the stock. 

According to the Financial Times, the consensus amongst 11 polled investment analysts covering JAS gave the company a Hold rating, with the median 12-month price target of 3.30 baht per share, as of March 25. 

Disclosure: No position and no recommendation.

THAILAND SET INVESTMENT RESEARCH

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