The S&P 500 surged 2.66% for the week to close on Friday at 2108.1, back near the all-time closing high of 2117.39 set on March 2. Investors mostly focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 17 and 18 and were expecting the Fed to remove the term "patient" from its Fed monetary statement.
Prior to the FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve released its industrial production figures on Monday for February, showing that industrial production increased by 0.1%, but factory output unexpectedly fell 0.2%. Economists were expecting a 0.2% rise in industrial production and a flat factory output. The Fed also said that capacity utilization fell to 78.9% in February, missing expectations of 79.5%.
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that U.S. housing starts plunged 17% month-on-month in February, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 897,000. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected February housing starts to reach a rate of 1.04 million.
Currency traders, who were piling their bullish bets on the dollar, decided to take profits after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that the Fed is no longer patient about hike rates and revised their inflation forecast downward for 2015, from between 1.5% and 1.8% to a new range of 1.3% to 1.4%.
The markets seemed not to get any direction from the Fed as Yellen also said, "Just because we removed the word patient from the (monetary) statement doesn't mean we are going to be impatient".
The Fed, however, stood by the statement that the interest rate hike decision will be determined "on a meeting-by-meeting” basis, depending if they are "reasonably confident" that inflation will pick up towards the Fed's annual 2.0% target.
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY), a weighted geometric index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, tumbled 5.19% to an intraday low of 94.765 on Wednesday before bouncing back and closed at 98.171 on Friday, down 1.25% for the week.
The best performing sectors for the week were S&P 500 Healthcare, Utilities and Energy. The Healthcare and Utilities sectors rose 4.8% and 3.85%, respectively, as money managers rotated out of risky assets and into defensive and interest-paid assets.
The S&P 500 Energy sector surged 3.14% for the week despite the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report early Wednesday, showing that crude oil inventories had a build of 9.622 million barrels to a total of 458.51 million barrels, the highest since the EIA began keeping a weekly record. Analysts had expected a build of about 3.75 million barrels.
Hedge funds and crude oil speculators are betting on a major DXY pullback and are shorting the U.S. dollar while taking long positions in the euro, gold and crude oil futures.
From the technical viewpoint, the S&P 500 just broke out from the bullish falling wedge. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), which now crossed above the signal line and formed a bullish crossover, is a buy signal for active traders. If the S&P manages to break out the 2120 level, our near-term projection target is 2147. There are technical supports at 2080 and 2061, if the S&P decides to pull back.
S&P 500 Summary: +1.33% YTD as of 03/20/15
Outperforming Sectors: Healthcare +9.41% YTD, Consumer discretionary +6.32% YTD, Information technology +2.68% YTD, Telecommunication services +2.28% YTD and Materials +1.4% YTD.
Underperforming Sectors: Industrials +0.91% YTD, Consumer staples +0.73% YTD, Financials –0.12% YTD, Energy –3.97% YTD and Utilities –4.76%
YTD. |